What’s holiday baking without heaps of sugar? With a worldwide sugar shortage, we just might find out.

Sugar scarcity is affecting households across the globe, according to FoxWeather. Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics, spoke to the outlet and reported that there is an estimated deficit of 5.4 million metric tons of sugar.

“The drop in supply is mainly due to another poor harvest expected in India amid below average monsoon rains totaling the lowest volumes in five years,” Davis says.

To put this in perspective, last season there was a 1 million metric ton global deficit.

India is the second-largest sugar supplier in the world, Davis notes. Although they usually export about 11 million tons, their expected quota is limited to just 6 million tons. Thailand is the third-largest sugar exporter but even their supply is reduced due to severe drought.

“As dryness is expected to expand in both countries during the next few months due to El Niño, the global sugar market remains vulnerable to fluctuations in supply and price in the coming months,” Davis continues.

Brazil is the number world’s number one supplier which means there’s more pressure on them to fill the gaps. But, as Davis says, even with an estimated 25% more output than last year, it’s not enough. The sugar shortage brought on by Thailand and India’s decreased output will still be felt worldwide.

“Pressure from domestic industries reliant on sugar sourcing, like food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels, may prompt Brazilian authorities to lower exports to ensure domestic supply,” Davis says.

Whether it’s used in its raw state or used as a liquid, sugar is used as a chemical compound as much as it is for taste. Beverages, yoghurt, ice cream, energy drinks and so much more rely on sugar for taste. Other products, such as alcohol, rely on sugar as an important ingredient behind production. It’s also used to extend shelf-life on a variety of products.

Davis warns that it’s not just a matter of keeping sugar in stock, prices could also fluctuate if things persist. Just like any other limited commodity, the scarcity can drive up prices.

With holiday baking ramping up, it’s likely the sugar shortage will be felt in households around the world. Families are already struggling to make ends meet so, another grocery item with high prices is unfortunate news for already-stretched budgets.

Some alternatives to use in your holiday baking include: agave, honey, maple syrup or stevia.